Forecasting the Drought in Bali using the Multilayer Perceptron Method

Ni Putu Ratih Andini Putri

Title:
Forecasting the Drought in Bali using the Multilayer Perceptron Method

Authors:
Ni Putu Ratih Andini Putri

Cite This Article :

Ni Putu Ratih Andini Putri "Forecasting the Drought in Bali using the Multilayer Perceptron Method" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-2, February 2021, pp.532-534, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38460.pdf

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Abstract :
Disasters have a huge impact on a country and a region. Bali is one of the provinces in Indonesia which has some disaster, one of the disasters that occurred in Bali was drought. Forecasting of droughtinn Bali is necessary so that the government can prevent and manage this kind disastersand can make wise decisions based on information regarding the number of drought. This study aims to predict the number of drought in the next five years. The method used is the Multilayer Perceptron because it is able to predict time series events. The data used are drought disaster events from 2011 to 2019. The results of the analysis in this study indicate that the best Learning Rate and Hidden Layer for forecasting the number of disaster events are Learning Rate 0.7 and Hidden Layer 3.2 respectively with MAPE accuracy is 19.91%. Forecasting results in the coming years show that there is an increase and decrease in the number of drought in 2020 to 2024.

Keywords :
Drought, Forecasting, Multilayer Perceptron

Publication Details:

Unique Identification Number : IJTSRD38460

Published In : Volume-5 | Issue-2, February 2021

Page Number(s) : 532-534

Publisher Name : IJTSRD | www.ijtsrd.com | E-ISSN 2456-6470

Copyright © 2019 by author(s) and International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development Journal. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

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